Thu, 26 October 2017
President Trump said each of the missile defense interceptors at the
Statistics don't work like that, at least that's not
Links of Note:
Mostly Missile Defense's List of Claims about GMD Effectiveness.
The Washington Post's Fact Check on President Trump's 97% claim.
Joshua Pollack's article on the 97% claim on Defense One.
Scott's been fiddling with missile defense calculators and put together a few helpful tools:
The Simple Model (pulled from Wilkening's work), but without radar/sensor probabilities. This calculator is used to estimate the probability of a multilayer missile defense architecture intercepting X number of incoming warheads.
Another Simple Model based calculator, but with a very basic estimation for sensors and tracking probabilities, also based on Wilkening's writings.