Arms Control Wonk

In the mid-60s, The Green Hornet was a popular TV show. Popular enough for the Taiwanese to apparently name an early ballistic missile after it, the Green Bee (青蜂). Also, did you know Taiwan had its own ballistic missile program? Its anti-ship and cruise missiles tend to make the news, but Taiwan has a storied and strange history with ballistic missile proliferation that involves the infiltration of American universities, the laundering of missiles, and Israel. 

Jeffrey and Scott sit down to discuss Taiwan's history with ballistic missiles with data fresh from Jeffrey's primary source research.

Direct download: ep18.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:26pm EDT

Can the North Koreans still trade coal effectively? What is going on with North Korean ships? Are transit lounges smokey dens of proliferative behavior?

Andrea Berger, Deputy Director of Proliferation and Nuclear Policy at the Royal United Services Institute, joins Jeffrey to talk about UNSC 2321 and recent UN attempts to close the loopholes in existing sanctions on North Korea.

Direct download: 17revision.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EDT

Aaron and Scott talk about the Fourth Player in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Turkey was the lesser-known player in the Cuban Missile Crisis, with nuclear-tipped Jupiter missiles that ranged the bulk of the western USSR and Warsaw Pact countries. The U.S. opted to pull back the Jupiters in exchange for those pesky missiles south of Florida. Turkey was not thrilled. 

Scott also sneaks in a reference to his favorite never-was missile, the Italian Alfa.

Direct download: EP16.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:17am EDT

Donald Trump can independently order the United States to launch nuclear weapons. No, really ... he can independently order the use American nukes. This realization has made some uncomfortable, prompting discussions about presidential power and the bomb. Jeffrey and Aaron talk Donald, the Bomb, and independent launch authority.

Direct download: ep15.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:46pm EDT

The election is over and Donald Trump is our president elect. The president elect and the nuclear did make regular appearances on the podcast, but things are different now. This week, Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the election, the Donald, and the nuclear.

Direct download: ep14.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:03pm EDT

Did you know Egypt has a robust ballistic missile program?  And has had, since the 1960s?  Or that Egypt worked with Argentina and Iraq to design missiles?  Or that Egypt was the source of the missiles that are the basis of North Korea's missile programs?  Ever wonder what the Egyptians are up to now?  Aaron and Jeffrey discuss one of the world's least understood missile programs.

Direct download: ep13.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:53am EDT

Scott Lafoy sits in for Aaron as Scott and Jeffrey discuss China's hit-to-kill program being tested out of Korla in China's western desert. Is designed to defend against missiles or shoot-down satellites?  BOTH, SILLY!

Direct download: ep12-2.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:26pm EDT

Donald Trump made a bunch of crazy claims about the 2010 New START treaty, misnaming it the START UP treaty.  And, on top of that, State published the semi-annual aggregate data causing raising a few eyebrows and signing a couple of others with hot takes.  All of which is plenty of reason for Aaron to tell Jeffrey what it was like the negotiate an arms control treaty in Bill Potter's famous simulation class.

Direct download: ep11.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:37pm EDT

Russia deployed the Iskander missile system to its tiny enclave of Kaliningrad and is reportedly churning out ground-launched cruise missiles like sausages.  The 1987 INF Treaty is probably in a lot of trouble,  which is as good a reason as any for podcast.  Jeffrey and Aaron talk.

Direct download: ep10.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:43pm EDT

Yemen showed off a new missile called the Burkan-1 that looks an awful lot like an Extended Range Scud. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss the very ignored missile program of a very ignored country. 

Direct download: ep9.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:38pm EDT

Former French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has written an article for The Washington Quarterly that dishes some of the dirt about negotiations leading up to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) -- better known as the Iran Deal.  Jeffrey and Aaron discuss what the revelations mean for the past and present of the US-Iran relationship.

Direct download: ep8.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:19pm EDT

There is a healthy debate about how much a new ICBM will cost the US Air Force.  One question is whether to base the new missile in silos or consider something more ... exotic.  Jeffrey and Aaron take a light-hearted look at basing modes discussed during 1980s when the American defense community last confronted this question.

Direct download: Ep7.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 2:52pm EDT

Leaked audio proves that Hilary Clinton revealed her secret plan to cancel the nuclear-armed cruise missile at a fundraiser in February.  Except it doesn't.  Aaron and Jeffrey discuss.

Direct download: ep6.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:36pm EDT

During the first Presidential debate, Donald Trump was asked about whether the United States should pledge not to be the first to use nuclear weapons.  Jeffrey and Aaron use Trump's ramblings as guide to nuclear weapons declaratory policy.

Direct download: Ep5.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 11:25pm EDT

The UN Security Council passed Resolution 2310 calling for an end to nuclear testing and the entry-into-force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.  Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the origin of the proposal to pass a UNSCR against nuclear testing, the politics of the damn thing, and "World's Greatest Deliberative Body"™.

Direct download: 9272016.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:50am EDT

Jeffrey and Aaron discuss North Korea's test of new rocket engine.  In January 2016, the US Treasry Department sanctioned several Iranian individuals associated with Iran's Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group (SHIG) for helping North Korea develop this engine -- the infamous "Dudes from the SHIG."

Direct download: 9222016_dudes_from_the_shig_II.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:18pm EDT

President Barack Obama entered office with a speech in Prague committing the United States to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons. Like every other two term President, his attention in the final months has turned to his legacy.  Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the reports that Obama considered and rejected no first use, and what he might do as his term comes to an end.

Josh Rogin, "Obama plans major nuclear policy changes in his final months," Washington Post, July 10, 2016.

David Sanger and William Broad, "Obama Unlikely to Vow No First Use of Nuclear Weapons," New York Times, September 5, 2016.

Julian Borger, "Obama to decide on cuts to US nuclear arsenal in October," The Guardian, September 17, 2016.

Direct download: Dolittle_Do_a_lot_9202016.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:05pm EDT

North Korea conducted yet another nuclear test. On a school night.

Aaron and Jeffrey discuss North Korea's fifth nuclear test, what it is like to write three articles in three days, and how quickly a toddler can decorate a television in lotion.

North Korea’s Nuke Program Is Way More Sophisticated Than You Think, Foreign Policy, September 9, 2016.

Why Is North Korea's Fifth Nuclear Test Different From Its Other Tests? The Atlantic, September 10, 2016. 

The Fifth Test: North Korea Building A Strategic Rocket Force? Beyond Parallel, September 9, 2016.

Direct download: ACW_20160913.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:16am EDT

“MIRV” stands for Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicles, the ability to put lots of very accurate nuclear warheads on a single missile.  Michael Krepon watched the US-Soviet arms race dangerously accelerate as both sides deployed large numbers of MIRVed missiles in the 1970s. Now other countries, like China and India, seem to be heading down this path.  Michael has edited a new book, The Lure and Pitfalls of MIRVs, that looks at the challenges and includes, among others, a chapter by Jeffrey on China’s nuclear forces.  Jeffrey and Michael discussion counterforce, MIRVs and the possibility of more intense nuclear arms races in East and South Asia.

The Lure and Pitfalls of MIRVs: From the First to the Second Nuclear Age, Michael Krepon, Travis Wheeler and Shane Mason, editors (Stimson Center, 2016). 

Jeffrey Lewis, “Great, Now China’s Got Multiple Nuclear Warhead Missiles?” Foreign Policy.com, May 26, 2015.

Support the show (and Karl the producer) by making a small donation on Patreon!

Thanks to: Dr Mark McCall, Sean Wain Dunlevy, Tim Emerton, and TD MacDonald for supporting the podcast!

Direct download: ACW_MIRVS_4_Jun_16.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:11pm EDT

Jeffrey and the Center for Nonproliferation Studies have been busy hosting a series of track 1.5 dialogues in the foggy bit of California. Under the direction of Stephanie Lieggi, CNS brought together American and Chinese officials for a much broader conversation about nonproliferation that was hijacked by the North Koreans - sorta like this podcast. Earlier that same week, a group of Russian and American officials met to discuss the DPRK nuclear threat. In this latest addition the podcast, Aaron and Jeffrey discuss these two track 1.5 events, in addition to our mutual love of Santa Lucia Pinot Noir and whales (tune in to find out how we worked in these last two topics).

Here is the write-up of our Russia meeting: What to do about North Korea: U.S., Russian officials talk in Monterey

Here is the link to Anna’s story in the Post: North Korea’s missile launch has failed, South’s military says - The Washington Post

Here is my write up of the static engine test: New DPRK ICBM Engine

Support the show (and Karl the producer) by making a small donation on Patreon!

Direct download: ACW_19_Apr_16.mp3
Category: -- posted at: 3:50pm EDT

Would South Korea ever build the bomb? Probably not, but there is a constituency in the country that has thought about it. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss South Korea’s nuclear weapon history - and constraints on proliferation.

Direct download: ACW_26_Mar_16.mp3
Category: -- posted at: 7:12pm EDT

North Korea’s Kim Jong Un visited a missile factory and posed with a nuclear weapon promoting the obvious question: Which one is Fat Man and which one is Little Boy? Aaron and Jeffrey discuss.

Direct download: ACW_10_Mar_16.mp3
Category: -- posted at: 12:57pm EDT

The DPRK launched a small satellite using its latest SLV, the Kwangmyŏngsŏng. In response, the United States and its regional allies deployed missile defense systems to defend their population from the DPRK threat. One problem: the systems deployed had no hope of shooting down the DPRK rocket. Today’s podcast explores the politics of alliance reassurance and why the US needs a new playbook to deal with DPRK space launches.

Direct download: ACW_10_Feb_16.mp3
Category: -- posted at: 2:18pm EDT

The U.S Treasury Department sanctioned individuals in the UAE and Iran, including some “dudes from the SHIG” for cooperation with KOMID. What the hell is KOMID? Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the Korea Mining Development Corporation, North Korea’s major arms seller and ponder the future of efforts to stop the (further) spread of ballistic and cruise missiles.

Treasury Sanctions Those Involved in Ballistic Missile Procurement for Iran

Direct download: ACW_20_Jan_16.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:36pm EDT

North Korea tested a submarine launched ballistic missile called the KN-11. The North Koreans released footage of the test that showed the missile soaring into the heavens. A close analysis of the footage by the Middlebury Institute team, however, determined that is exploded catastrophically shortly after launch. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss North Korea’s missile programs, the analysis of the test and what we should do about a problem like this.

Catherine Dill, “Video Analysis of DPRK SLBM Footage,” Arms Control Wonk, January 12, 2016

Direct download: ACW_14_Jan_16.mp3
Category: -- posted at: 11:46pm EDT

North Korea tested a nuclear weapon, claiming it was an H-bomb. Was it? Aaron Stein returns to talk with Jeffrey about North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

Direct download: ACW_North_Korea_test_6_Jan_16.mp3
Category: -- posted at: 5:03pm EDT

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