Arms Control Wonk

Launch a missile, get a pod, post-INF Treaty edition. 

On December 12, 2019, the U.S. Air Force and the Strategic Capabilities office tested a "prototype conventionally-configured, ground-launched ballistic missile" from Vandenberg AFB. The trio talks Twitter hot takes, the Strategic Capabilities Office, the future of U.S. missile procurement, and the future of intermediate-range ballistic missiles.

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Direct download: 143.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:59pm EST

Sohae is open for business!

The ACW Gang talks North Korea's recent engine test at Sohae and marvels (again) at the power of satellite imagery. Was this test Kim's "Christmas Gift" to Trump? Or just a stocking stuffer? 

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Direct download: 142.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:52pm EST

What is the future of the Open Skies Treaty? The Arms Control Wonk trio talk the Open Skies Treaty, the conspiracy theories that now permeate the debate about Russian aircraft, and why the treaty matters.

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Direct download: 141.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:30pm EST

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has announce yet another "step" away from the JCPOA, the fourth this year. As Iran resumes feeding UF6 into some of the cascades at the Fordow Enrichment Plant, Anne and Jeffrey discuss the steps that led us here and the prospect for preserving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

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Direct download: 140.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:45am EST

Everybody loves a parade, especially one with missiles and drones.  

Superproducer Scott joins Jeffrey and Anne to discuss the new hardware displayed in early October, and how great it is to watch the PRC's flag-raising ceremony.

Scott has waited seven years for this parade, so that he can finally get a legitimate high-resolution shot of the DF-41 solid propellant ICBM. Less expected were the DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicle, the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile, the "WZ-8" air-launched rocket-powered drone, and, of course, the almighty gyrocopter. 

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Direct download: 137.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:38am EST

The New York Times reported recently that US officials are considering removing US nuclear weapons from Turkey. Aaron knows a bit about this, so Jeffrey called in from his car on the road to San Francisco, and Anne called in from a foggy Monterey to talk about nuclear weapons in Turkey.

Producer's Note: Due to the impromptu nature of this podcast, audio quality is poor. Apologies for any gnashing of teeth.

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Direct download: 139.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:34am EST

It is finally here! Two years after seeing posters for the Pukguksong-3 during Kim Jong Un's visit to the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defense Science in 2017, the North Korea has finally tested the next generation of its submarine launched ballistic missiles. 

Joseph Dempsey of the International Institute of Strategic Studies returns to talk with Jeffrey about the new SLBM, the possible new submarine, and the difficulty of deploying an SLBM. 

Our previous epic, three-part podcast with Joseph below:

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

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Direct download: 138.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 10:55am EST

Iran may have just rocketed oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The ACW trio asks what else is new, after time spent analyzing Qiam strikes on Riyadh.

With tensions increasing in the Gulf, and questions about a potential US strike to punish Iran for its cruise missile strike, Aaron, Anne, and Jeffrey are joined by Fabian Hinz to talk Iranian cruise missiles and recent events in the Gulf.

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Direct download: 136.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:07pm EST

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking just days before an election, revealed an alleged new nuclear site in Iran, dubbed Abadeh. 

On this week's episode, the ACW trio talk about the revelation, what the satellite pictures show may be happening at the site, and why Iran's razing of the site doesn't match up to the full Lavizan-Shian treatment- at least not yet. 

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Direct download: 135.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:57am EST

Russia tested something and maybe kinda sorta told the truth about a subsequent spike in radiation. 
What happened? who knows?
In this episode, the ACW trio discuss the explosion in Nenoksa and why it may have been a test to support the Skyfall (Burevestnik) program that went wrong.

 

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Direct download: 134.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:47pm EST

During one of the Democratic Presidential primary debates, Elizabeth Warren and Governor Whats-his-name sparred over nuclear weapons, no-first use and deproliferation. Aaron, Anne and Jeffrey discuss the use of jargon in gate-keeping and the merits of various proposals relating to no first use.

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Direct download: 133.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:51pm EST

Jeffrey and Anne attended the CTBTO's 2019 Science and Technology Conference in Vienna, which means this is another Wienerpod!

Aaron calls in to get the lowdown on the state of the CTBT and the evolving technological environment for nuclear test detection. 

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Direct download: 132.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:41pm EST

Turkey used a ballistic missile, the Bora, for the first time in combat.

Launch a missile, get a pod!

Aaron, Anne and Jeffrey discuss the Bora, geolocating the launch site, and the state of missile proliferation in the Middle East.

 

Our 2017 episode on the Bora.

 

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Direct download: 131.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:10pm EST

The United States intelligence community, or a portion of it, has concluded that Russia is conducting very low-yield nuclear tests. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss past allegations of nuclear testing, open source monitoring of Russia's nuclear test site at Novaya Zemlya and how the Trump Administration might change its mind on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

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Direct download: 130.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:50pm EST

If see any news coverage about missile threats in the Middle East, nine times out of ten it is Iran's missiles that are in the news. But Iran is just one of many countries in the region.

Egypt, Israel, Turkey Saudi Arabia and Syria all produce, to one degree or another, their own missiles. And there are more states like Yemen, the UAE and Qatar that have imported missiles.

CNS and the Nuclear Threat Initiative are launching a Middle East Missile Map to explore the regional context of missile proliferation.

 

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Direct download: 129.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:53pm EST

A nuclear archive. JCPOA news. B-52 bomber task forces. A naval armada. And Scuds on ships. What could go wrong? To break down all things Iran, Jeffrey and Aaron spoke about the latest happenings in and with Iran.

 

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Direct download: 128.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:18pm EST

Launch a missile, get a podcast. North Korea launched a short-range missile over the weekend and a Planet satellite was there to see it.

Jeffrey and Anne discuss the one in a million picture, the missile itself and what it might mean for the final fully verified denuclearization of North Korea as agreed (or not) by Chairman Kim.

 

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Direct download: 127.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:37pm EST

The Trump Administration approved some 810s to Saudi Arabia.  And INVAP is building a low power research reactor in Riyadh.  What's an 810?  What's INVAP?  It's complicated.  You'll just have to listen to the podcast as Jeffrey and Aaron discuss how people are over-reacting to the latest Saudi nuclear news while also noting that it is time for Saudi Arabia to put in place a Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA.  Well, Saudi already has a CSA. Like we said, its complicated. 
 
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Direct download: 126.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 1:02pm EST

Test a missile, get a pod. Kill a satellite? Get a podcast with a special guest. Ankit Panda joins Aaron and Jeffrey to discuss India's recent anti-satellite test. Also, Jeffrey says he told you so. (Again.)

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Direct download: 125.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:15pm EST

The summit in Hanoi was a bust. 
New podcast co-host Anne Pellegrino joins Jeffrey and Aaron to discuss, as Joshua Pollack calls it, the Scapegoat Rodeo in Hanoi.
 
 

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Direct download: 124.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:43pm EST

The Chairman of the Committee on Oversight and Reform wants answers to allegations about influence peddling and a grandiose plan to sell Saudi Arabia up to 40 nuclear reactors.

This week, Aaron and Jeffrey dig into the interim staff report detailing the allegations, what the purported IP3 plan really means, and safeguards on civil nuclear technology. 

 

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Direct download: 123.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:56pm EST

Judging from Twitter, the Munich Security Conference is talking about
the demise of the INF Treaty.  Jeffrey, back in California after his
sojourn to Vermont and Aaron revisit INF pods of the past to focus on
what really matters: Getting Taylor Swift to cover Nena's 99
Luftballoons.

Direct download: 122.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:06pm EST

Andrea hosts one last KCN-eh? before heading off to the Great White North. Jeffrey joins in to talk about North Korea's other developments from January, including the site of the second Trump-Kim summit, U.S. Special Representative Stephen Beigun's speech at Stanford, and how to mimic denuclearization without denuclearizing.

 

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Direct download: 121.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:55pm EST

Satellite images taken by Planet Labs appear to show that Saudi Arabia has constructed a plant to manufacture solid propellant ballistic missiles.

Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the CNS team's latest find.

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Direct download: 120.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:21pm EST

Russia tested a hypersonic missile, or at least they claimed to. As of now, Putin and Russian media have told us a lot, but what do we really know about Avangard?

Aaron and Jeffrey are joined by James Acton from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to discuss hypersonics, missile defense, and what Russia's Avangard may actually look like. 

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Direct download: 119.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:11pm EST

Jeffrey and Aaron return from the holidays to talk about ... North Korea. 

Kim Jong Un gave his traditional New Year's  Day speech.

On the first day of 2017, Kim signaled the ICBM test that was to come. And on the first day of 2018, he hinted at the diplomatic thaw that would bring “love letters” and a finger-heart. So what does 2019 have in store for us?

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Direct download: 118.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:40am EST

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