Arms Control Wonk

On April 20, an Israeli twitter user posted a video of a large smoky cloud to his Twitter account with the comment “A mysterious explosion in northern Israel.”

Jeffrey and his team tracked down the "mysterious explosion," identifying it as a solid rocket motor test for an unknown missile or space system.

Aaron and Jeffrey walk through the team's methodology, how they found the site, how they identified that it was a rocket motor, and how CNS's knowledgebase of missile industrial facilities assists in rapidly disproving disinformation. 

https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1211676/israeli-rocket-motor-test/

Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Direct download: 178.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 3:38pm EDT

North Korea has been active the past few weeks, launching a set of cruise missiles (probably just coastal defense systems) and a separate set of ballistic missiles (which look like stretched KN23 short-range ballistic missiles) a few days later. But these events were received very differently by the Biden administration and analysts.

Jeffrey, Aaron, and Scott discuss why these events were  received so differently, what the deal is with North Korea's newest short-range ballistic missile system, and what the Biden administration may be getting itself into with its denuclearization policy.

 

Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Please note that any views expressed on the Arms Control Wonk Podcast are the views of individual hosts, and do not represent the views of hosts' respective employers.

Direct download: 177.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:19pm EDT

Biden campaigned on rejoining the JCPOA, but some of that enthusiasm has dried up since he took office.


Aaron and Jeffrey debate what's going on, strategies for negotiating re-joining the JCPOA, and the fallacy of letting the perfect get in the way of the good as people begin to advocate for "waiting for a better deal" again.

Also, it is a good time to start listening to Season Two of The Deal, available at IranDealPodcast.com and Apple Podcasts.

Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Direct download: 176.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 7:25pm EDT

President Biden has extended New START for five more years. But what are we going to do with those years? How to we actually advance stability?

Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the steps necessary to secure stable, effective arms control treaties, the history of arms control, and the importance of tacking missile defenses alongside offensive systems.

Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Direct download: 175.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:54pm EDT

Iran unveiled a new (mostly) solid-propellant space launcher, the Zoljanah!

But it looks....different than the other space launchers. Besides having a new fuel type, the Zoljanah may not have many IRGC or military fingerprints on it, indicating that the Iranian solid-propellant programs are robust and expansive.

Jeffrey and Aaron talk Iranian space programs, civilian vs. military control of research programs, and, of course, why a solid-propellant launcher makes a difference. 

Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Direct download: 174.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:25pm EDT

Israel maintains a technologically advanced but understudied ballistic missile arsenal. 

Jeffrey and Aaron dive into the French, South African, and American influences on the arsenal, how to model the Jericho missile families, and the history of the Israeli ballistic missile program.

Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Direct download: 173.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 8:13pm EDT

North Korea put on *another* parade, during the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea. 

Kim Jong Un dropped some fascinating details about what the DPRK has allegedly completed, and what they may be working on, including a possible nuclear submarine and intermediate-range cruise missile. Then, he paraded some new missile hardware, including a new solid-fuel SLBM and some new short range systems. 

And, to top it off, Jeffrey and Dave Schmerler found that the SLBM-test platform in Nampho harbor has been moved for a possible refurb, meaning SLBM tests may be possible in the near future.

Jeffrey and Scott try to parse out what the North Koreans have built, what they showed us at the parade, and what is to come this year.

 

For our episode on the gigantic new as-of-yet-unnamed ICBM (nicknamed the Hwasong-16 or the Hwasong-X), click here.

For our episode on the October 2020 Military Parade in North Korea, click here.

 

Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Please note that any views expressed on the Arms Control Wonk Podcast are the views of individual hosts, and do not represent the views of hosts' respective employers.

Direct download: 172.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:50pm EDT

On Thursday, Dec. 12, 2019, at 8:30 a.m. Pacific Time, the U.S. Air Force, in partnership with the Strategic Capabilities Office, conducted a flight test of a prototype conventionally-configured ground-launched ballistic missile from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. 

But just what the heck did the DOD actually test? Jeffrey and team turn their analytic methods towards figuring out exactly what this strange, Frankenmissile was, and the open-source research lessons that can be gleaned from academic papers and unclassified laboratory newsletters.

 

And yes, we know it is actually Frankenstein's Missile, Frankenstein was actually the prime contractor. 

Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Direct download: 171.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:30pm EDT

Nancy Pelosi has indicated that Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has assured her that there are safeguards against an "unstable president" accessing "the launch codes" and launching a nuclear strike. 

Jeffrey and Aaron discuss why that is wrong (and/or illegal), what the actual launch process is, and what the political strategy behind Nancy Pelosi's message may be.

Previous Entries in The Donald and The Nuclear series on executive power and nuclear weapons:

The Donald, The Nuclear, and No First Use

2 Donald 2 Nuclear

The Donald and The Nuclear 3: Tokyo Drift

The Donald and The Nuclear Goblet of Fire (And Fury)

The Donald and The Nuclear V: The Senate Strikes Back

The Donald and The Nuclear VI: Pushin' My Buttons

 

Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Direct download: 170.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 4:53pm EDT

Jeffrey and crew have been busy at work modelling the giant ICBM that the DPRK paraded in October 2020, as well as tracing out its possible industrial provenance.

Aaron and Jeffrey talk through modelling methodologies, North Korean industrial espionage, and how to build robust public policies to account for uncertainty.  

For our episode on the October 2020 Military Parade in North Korea, click here.

 

Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Direct download: 169.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:12pm EDT

1